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Published 16/7/2026, 07:05
Spain v Argentina: Where the final will be won and lost

By Tom McGarry

The biggest World Cup in history will conclude on Sunday but will it be Spain or Argentina celebrating come the final whistle at New York New Jersey Stadium?

It looks set to be a final of contrasting styles, with Spain focusing on possession-based control and defensive solidity, while Argentina have fought fire with fire and have been the comeback kings of the knockout stages.

Spain can control proceedings

Spain were magnificent in their semi-final victory over an admittedly underwhelming France on Tuesday, taking the lead in the first half and, unlike England the following night, continuing to play brave football, keeping possession and limiting Kylian Mbappe and co to three shots on target and an xG of 0.3.

La Roja have been defensively solid all tournament, conceding only one goal in seven matches and restricting their opponents to just 11 shots on target.

That defensive resilience perhaps makes Luis de la Fuente's side the ideal team to stop an Argentina side that have ridden their luck to reach the final.

The defending champions have twice been taken to extra time - by Cape Verde and Switzerland - while they had to come from behind in their other two knockout matches to break the hearts of first Egypt and then England.

England sat back after taking the lead in their semi-final, but Spain showed against France they won't make the same mistake.

Argentina, inspired by Lionel Messi, may be the top scorers at the tournament - netting 18 goals in seven games - but if Spain can get their noses in front in East Rutherford, it is hard to see them relinquishing control.

The battle of the Barcelona icons

There will be plenty of world-class talent on show on Sunday, but the course of the final could be decided by who has the better game out of Lamine Yamal and Lionel Messi.

Spain's Yamal was hampered by a hamstring injury heading into the World Cup and his only goal involvement at the tournament to date came in the group-stage win over Saudi Arabia.

However, he has still been performing at a high level and he proved during Euro 2024 that he can be the man for the big occasion.

Messi is certainly that for Argentina - his two-goal haul in the 2022 World Cup final highlights that - and the evergreen 39-year-old has continued to shine in North America, scoring eight goals and providing four assists, two of which came in the semi-final win over England.

The Inter Miami star was afforded far too much space in that match, something he is unlikely to get when coming up against Spain full-back Marc Cucurella, who will surely adopt a combative approach to try to contain Messi.

Cucurella may well test the patience of referee Slavko Vincic with his attempts to contain Messi, and just how strict or lenient the referee is regarding that individual battle could have a big say on the overall outcome.

Subs can play their part

In what may be a tight final, substitutes could play a key role and both managers have shown their ability to utilise their benches throughout the tournament.

While Thomas Tuchel was pilloried for his changes to the England team, Lionel Scaloni was brave with his and was rewarded with Lautaro Martinez coming on to score the winning goal in the semi-final.

Spain have also benefited from decisive impacts from their bench, with replacement Mikel Merino scoring late winners in both their round of 16 victory over Portugal and quarter-final success against Belgium.

In a world where substitutes are now regarded as finishers, someone could come off the bench to produce the match and tournament's decisive moment.

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